The election in Iraq seems to have some opponents of the Iraq war a little confused. So many people voting; so little violence on election day; so much hope for the future—might George Bush have been right to invade after-all?
The question becomes even more pressing if you believe, as I do, that things are likely to go better in Iraq than many people expect. Furthermore, as American troops pull out, and retreat to fortified bases, we’re going to see a reduction in American casualties, and we’re likely to see changing attitudes in the US towards the war. In fact, by the ‘08 elections, the Iraq war is likely to serve as a positive for whomever is the Republican Nominee for President.
Republican have already started pushing an interesting talking point, that we’ll surely see much more of soon. I noticed the “we won, but it’s subtle” meme on the Belmont Club a week or two ago:
Victory when it came, was both greater and less; more partial and more complete than expected. It did not take the European form of parades down the Champs Elysee, followed by a return to old and establish ways of governance. What the destruction of the Ba’athist regime did was reanimate long suppressed local and ethnic interests and channel them into competition through the ballot box — with the occasional recourse to violence. Tremendous forces have been unleashed which critics of the war will point to as signs of an incipient civil war, but which supporters of OIF will describe as a newly liberated society feeling its way forward.
Ick, yes. If you want to read the rest of the post, you’ll find that it paints political violence in Iraq as something to be regarded fondly as the evidence of the flowering of Iraqi politics. Rush Limbaugh has been echoing this sentiment lately—pointing out repeatedly that “we had a civil war in this country—the greatest country on face of the earth!,” and suggesting that the Iraqis ought to be grateful for the chance to experience the exciting project of nation-building as we Americans did at Antietam and Chancellorsville. Lucky them!
It’s a pretty grotesque logic. And if the civil war in Iraq escalates during or after the American pull-out, we’ll see more such disgusting stuff. But we probably won’t. Because a large-scale Civil War in Iraq is less, rather than more likely. As American troops pull out, I’m betting that cooler heads will prevail and keep things together, at least in the short run. We’ll see.
If the civil hostilities that break out can be kept to a minimum, or at least kept from American television screens (this won’t be difficult!), we can anticipate a resurgence of support for the Iraq adventure as American troops come home, and as Americans become more oblivious to whatever problems remain in that far away place, that most of them probably still couldn’t find on a map.
Democrats should realize that the Presidency will by no means be their for the taking in ‘08, as some of them seem now to believe.
But to return, then, to the opening question: was it right to invade Iraq? This question, for me, bears serious consideration, since I’m not a pacifist, and since I always understood that some pro-war sorts—Chis Hitchens, and even Paul Wolfowitz, for exampe—are at least in part motivated by a sort of progressive internationalism that I think has merit.
Why was it then a bad idea to invade Iraq, even if a democracy does develop there?
Without trivializing the enormous suffering and loss of life that this war has brought to Iraq (which might otherwise have had one day a peaceful revolution, a la 1989, a slow movement from autocracy into modernity (a la Turkey), or a bloody but largely home-grown revolution), it needs to be said that the larger reason to avoid this should have been the extreme longer-term peril posed by plunging the world into a multipolar political arrangement.
While the Project for the New American Century viewed American Hegemony as the only way to survive, the attempt to secure hegemonic power will lead—and has already led—to a destabilizing reaction against American power. As a consequence of this war, we’ve already seen, for example:
+Unprecedented joint military exercises ny Russian and China
+The rise to power of anti-American Left governments in S. America, who are interested in reducing their “special relationship” with the US, favoring new “South-South” alliances
+The rise of nationalism in Japan, and a move to revise the provisions of the Japanese constitution that prohibit the building of a military
+Europe’s decision to end its military reliance on US global-positioning satellites and is building its own network, and its simialr growing objections to the US role in administering the internet
+Russia has built a new generation of ziz-zaging ICBM’s to render useless the gigantically expensive “Star Wars” missile-defense system for which Bush scrapped the 1972 ABM treaty.
Activities of these sorts represent the slow unraveling of the unipolar geopolitical arrangement that’s more-or-less kept the peace since the end of the Cold War, and a relaunching of multi-lateral arms races and political alliance-making that hasn’t been seen since before World War I. And that’s where the real danger lies.
Instead of strengthening the United Nations and other methods of international governance, the Bush administration has fanned the flames of nationalism worldwide and initiated an arms race that is only now becoming obvious. The dangers here involve not just terrorism, but also global military conflict and catastrophe.
We must hope and work to see that cooler heads in Iraq and in the world prevail, and that the global move towards militarism and nationalism can be halted by those of us who want a world as free from war, terrorism, and injustice as possible. The first years of this new century are beginning to very much resemble the first years of the last one.