Debates, Debates!
Posted in general, politics on September 30th, 2004Ok. It’s a couple hours before the presidential debate. I will of course be watching. Predictions?
My instinct is that Kerry will do better than expected. Despite his mean ‘rep, George Bush is acutally *not* a great debater. On issues he loses. He wins with swagger and “down home” style. In a debate where people know about and and care a lot the issues at steak, Bush is vunerable. Insofar as this debate may end up being more debate than style show, Bush could be in trouble. His huge mistakes about social security etc when debating Al Gore went unnoticed. Mistakes and confusions about Iraq will not be ignored in the same way. People care about this stuff. If Bush strays from his script even a little, the resulting confusions will hurt him.
Kerry’s also become better at turning the tables, by pointing repeatedly to events on the ground in Iraq, instead of defending and explaining his vote to go to war. For every Bush” “We were attacked. [pause] Attacked!” Kerry can reply by pointing to the present disaster.
So things have evened out for Kerry. Moreover, Bush will have to lie tonight. He’ll perhaps give up a little more than expected, by admitting to some difficulties. But I’m guessing that the Bush penchant for lying big will overcome the more sensible method of deception that admits to obvious truths, and lies only where believability can be achieved.
Bush, lying, will be in a postion of covering up, which will eventually distrtact and annoy him, drag him down, by making him seem a little more hunted than he wants to be.
Hopefully Kerry will not look too Orange, or be dogged by little debate lights. If his voice is in good shape and he looks ok, the dynamic of the dabate should be his, as he will get to occupy the moral high ground of truth teller–a role he knows and can reprise from the early 70’s.
If the debate stays light and friendly, Bush wins. If it gets serious, it will get *really* serious, and Kerry will end up the winner, if he can seem to issue statesmanlike, rather than shrill denunciations of Bush’s policy. I think kerry knows this, can do this, and will press Bush hard.
Bush gets a little off-program, a little tounge-tied, and generally seems on the defensive against a presidential Kerry. The media is feeling embarrassed and will try not to “Gore” Kerry as horribly as they did Al–and the issues at steak in this first debate will not be so easily overshadowed by micro-gaffes, skin-tone questions, or wardrobe issues.
My geuss is that Kerry leads in national polls by the middle of next week.
That’s what I see. I’ll post this now, and leave it up. We’ll see shortly how very right I am.





